A Troubling Trend Underlying Job Market Optimism

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the jobs report for March this morning. Unemployment held steady at 9.7%, with other indications of a slow recovery in some sectors.

As the Wall Street Journal reports, the most troubling trend is this: Over 40% of the 15 million unemployed are considered "long-term" unemployed (meaning they have been without a job and looking for more than 27 weeks), which is more than double the number from March of last year. The stagnation of the long-term unemployed is unlike other recessions, the Journal reports, and for the following reasons:

• The unemployed are less mobile in their pursuit of work. They cannot afford to sell their houses, finding the spouse another job is difficult in a two-income family, and the usual destinations are the areas hit hardest by the recession.
• The unemployed have skills less relevant in today’s economy. Finding a new job often means acquiring new skills first.

So, what are the implications for Recruiting? Our estimate: more of the same.

Application volume will continue to be high. The large number of long term unemployed will continue to send in their applications. Not surprisingly, most applications will be unqualified due to job seeker desperation and misalignment of skills with today’s economy.